beginning of correction

if you think the stocks are cheap now, it might get cheaper still...markets are not done correcting yet. STI 3000 might not hold....watch out for 2900.

When the market sentiment is poor, fundamentals will be ignored(NAV, good financial ratios) and stocks will keep falling until sentiments improve.

Wait for US to finish correcting(might hit 15200....might only hor), then we go in and pick up bargains....though there are already some bargains now.

Save your bullets until after CNY. Happy CNY!!! Huat Uh ! Huat Uh!!!

market rebounded??

wah! what an unexpected outcome and market reaction to QE? Fed plans to taper in Jan 2014, the market went down abit and rebounded strongly..perhaps the taper was much less than expected and the market was relieved or Uncle Ben prepared the market well to receive it?? whatever the reasons, there's $$$$ to be make.

by now you should be able to read the TA using the tools I have shared....has the market rebounded(please look at the indicators and draw a conclusion and action plan)?? Dow Jones is making new highs, Will our super laggard STI break new high too...

Great Singapore Sales ahead.

The Dow is falling , and that affect overall world  market sentiment ...STI is especially vulnerable....it is now at 3101 having broke the last strong support at 3120...markets will be volatile at least for the next 1-2 weeks await FOMC meeting.

take this opportunity to buy some plantation stocks on the bargain...wait for market to rebound first though....Don't spend all...always keep some cash.

Palm oil looks like staying above 2600 RM

despite some conerns on the demand side(goggle "Palm oil news" in bloomberg), CPO still stays above 2600 RM on weather concerns(monsoon ends around Feb next year). the impact of wet wether on CPO prices is likely not yet fully priced it yet....people tend to under or overestimate the impact...let's wait and see.

Dow jones might have hit a short term peak ard 16130

hi,

check out the MACD for dow jones...it has crossed down. What does that mean??

Where could be that next logical support?? If it doesn't rebound tonight, might be heading for 15600 (the last round of strong rebound and just above the 50 days MA).

The STI didn't rally much when US, Euro and Japan rallied...and didn't dropped alot compare to Dow/Nikkei 225......hmmm now STI has some support around 3170....it is attempting to challenge the 50 days MA around 3188..If u failed to break up, then i will break down and re-attempt from a lower base. Next support around 3158, if fails to hold likely head for 3120. If that fails, then will head for 3060...so no hurry to catch the stocks yet.

Any doubts about the Palm oil rally???

Even a veteran in Palm oil trading got it wrong on 22nd Sept, predicting that CPO may drop to 2000 

RM.?? Now he abandoned his earlier forecast.

I highlighted about a potential bottoming in CPO prices in Oct saying that it could have rebounded from a 3 year

low.....

just a reminder that in the short term, the stock prices of plantation stocks will flunctuate up and down...but

overall can you see an uptrend?? Look at the chart of Noble grp for an idea of how a commodities stocks behave.

Palm Bull Rally Extending for Mistry as Indonesian Output Drops

By Ranjeetha Pakiam & Yoga Rusmana - Nov 29, 2013 4:52 PM GMT+0800

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Palm oil, the world’s most used cooking oil, is set to extend a bull market rally as output drops inIndonesia and biofuel mandates expand globally, said Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd.

Futures will trade from 2,600 ringgit ($806) to 2,900 ringgit a metric ton between now and March, Mistry said in comments prepared for a conference in Bandung, Indonesia. Prices may rally further to 3,000 ringgit if Brazil implements a higher biodiesel mandate, which would bolster soybean oil prices, he said. That level may not be sustained as export taxes will further increase costs, he said.

“I expect prices to do the job of moving demand away from palm oil at least until March,” said Mistry, who has traded vegetable oils for more than three decades. “Stocks may begin to replenish from May 2014 and prices may decline thereafter.”

Palm oil, used in everything from candy to detergents, entered a bull market this month and is heading for its first annual gain in three years as production drops at plantations in Indonesia and biodiesel demand increases. Indonesian output will decline by 500,000 tons to 27.5 million tons this year, before rebounding to 30.5 million tons in 2014, said Mistry. That would be the first drop since 1998, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Futures were little changed at 2,653 ringgit on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives at the midday break in Kuala Lumpur today. Prices surged to 2,692 ringgit on Nov. 22, the highest since September 2012, and are 8.8 percent higher this year.

Rains, Drought

Indonesian output will fall 1.9 percent to 26.5 million tons this year after heavy rains and drought, according to the median of five grower estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with 28.5 million tons estimated by the USDA. Deutsche Bank AG says futures traded in Malaysia, a global benchmark, will average 2,800 ringgit next year.

Plantations in Indonesia are taking longer than usual to recover from the high output cycle in the last four months of 2012, lowering crop this quarter, said Mistry. “The new high cycle in most parts of Indonesia will kick in from about May.”

Malaysian output may gain to 19.5 million tons to 19.7 million tons in 2014 from 19.2 million tons this year, said Mistry. The world’s second-largest grower produced 18.8 million tons last year, according to the nation’s palm oil board.

Vegetable oil supplies may remain tight until May, keeping prices higher, said Mistry. Additional supplies from the second half of 2013-2014 oil year will help ease prices, he said.

Abandoning Forecast

Mistry said on Nov. 14 in Guangzhou that futures could range between 2,400 ringgit and 2,600 ringgit with a surge to 2,800 ringgit in the first two months of next year, abandoning a Sept. 22 prediction for prices to drop to 2,000 ringgit in January on prospects for big soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina and if Brent crude oil fell below $100 a barrel.

Global biofuel demand may expand by at least 2.5 million tons on larger mandates in Indonesia and to a smaller extent in Malaysia, said Mistry. While Brazil and Argentina will also increase their mandates, rising palm and vegetable oil costs and declining crude prices have made discretionary blending unworkable, he said.

Indonesia raised the blending rate for biodiesel in subsidized fuel to 10 percent in September from 7.5 percent and the mandate will be expanded to non-subsidized fuel and for industrial users next year. About 6.34 million tons of palm oil will probably be processed into fuel this year, according to Hamburg-based industry researcher Oil World.

Indian Imports

Global cooking oil demand will probably increase by 6 million tons in the 12 months from October, while supplies are set to expand 7.1 million tons, said Mistry.

Cash prices for soybean oil from the old crop will trade from $920 to $1,000 a ton on a free-on-board basis in Argentina, he said. Prices could rise to $1,100 if Brazilian and Argentinian mandates are enhanced and if the U.S. blenders credit is renewed, he said.

Vegetable oil imports by India may climb 4.2 percent to 11.1 million tons in the oil year that began Nov. 1 from a year earlier, said Mistry. The biggest palm oil consumer may buy 8.3 million tons of the tropical oil, little changed from 2012-2013.

“I expect palm imports to stagnate because palm’s discount to soft oils is narrowing,” said Mistry. “Indian refiners also prefer to import unrefined soft oils where margins are much better.”

Palm oil heads for second monthly gain

Palm Heads for Second Monthly Gain on Indonesian Output Concern

By Ranjeetha Pakiam - Nov 29, 2013 2:23 PM GMT+0800

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Palm oil headed for a second monthly advance on speculation that production in Indonesia, the world’s largest supplier, may decline this year as weather curbs yields.

The contract for delivery in February was little changed at 2,653 ringgit ($822) a metric ton on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives at the midday break in Kuala Lumpur, after climbing to 2,656 ringgit yesterday, the highest price at close since September 2012. Futures rose 2.3 percent this month, poised for the first annual increase in three years.

Palm output in Indonesia will drop 1.9 percent to 26.5 million tons this year, according to the median of five grower estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the first decline since 1998, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which sees a 28.5 million ton crop.

“The uncertainties over Indonesia’s palm oil production are lending support to prices,” said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, a director at Commtrendz Risk Management Services in Mumbai. “There may be some temporary bullishness but when prices come close to the 2,700 ringgit psychological mark, it will be met with a lot of resistance.”

Refined palm oil for May delivery gained 0.3 percent to 6,334 yuan ($1,040) a ton on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Soybean oil climbed 0.3 percent to 7,272 yuan.