Tuesday 24 December 2013

market rebounded??

wah! what an unexpected outcome and market reaction to QE? Fed plans to taper in Jan 2014, the market went down abit and rebounded strongly..perhaps the taper was much less than expected and the market was relieved or Uncle Ben prepared the market well to receive it?? whatever the reasons, there's $$$$ to be make.

by now you should be able to read the TA using the tools I have shared....has the market rebounded(please look at the indicators and draw a conclusion and action plan)?? Dow Jones is making new highs, Will our super laggard STI break new high too...

Thursday 5 December 2013

Great Singapore Sales ahead.

The Dow is falling , and that affect overall world  market sentiment ...STI is especially vulnerable....it is now at 3101 having broke the last strong support at 3120...markets will be volatile at least for the next 1-2 weeks await FOMC meeting.

take this opportunity to buy some plantation stocks on the bargain...wait for market to rebound first though....Don't spend all...always keep some cash.

Tuesday 3 December 2013

Palm oil looks like staying above 2600 RM

despite some conerns on the demand side(goggle "Palm oil news" in bloomberg), CPO still stays above 2600 RM on weather concerns(monsoon ends around Feb next year). the impact of wet wether on CPO prices is likely not yet fully priced it yet....people tend to under or overestimate the impact...let's wait and see.



Dow jones might have hit a short term peak ard 16130

hi,

check out the MACD for dow jones...it has crossed down. What does that mean??

Where could be that next logical support?? If it doesn't rebound tonight, might be heading for 15600 (the last round of strong rebound and just above the 50 days MA).

The STI didn't rally much when US, Euro and Japan rallied...and didn't dropped alot compare to Dow/Nikkei 225......hmmm now STI has some support around 3170....it is attempting to challenge the 50 days MA around 3188..If u failed to break up, then i will break down and re-attempt from a lower base. Next support around 3158, if fails to hold likely head for 3120. If that fails, then will head for 3060...so no hurry to catch the stocks yet.




Friday 29 November 2013

Any doubts about the Palm oil rally???

Even a veteran in Palm oil trading got it wrong on 22nd Sept, predicting that CPO may drop to 2000 

RM.?? Now he abandoned his earlier forecast.

I highlighted about a potential bottoming in CPO prices in Oct saying that it could have rebounded from a 3 year

low.....

just a reminder that in the short term, the stock prices of plantation stocks will flunctuate up and down...but

overall can you see an uptrend?? Look at the chart of Noble grp for an idea of how a commodities stocks behave.

Palm Bull Rally Extending for Mistry as Indonesian Output Drops

Palm oil, the world’s most used cooking oil, is set to extend a bull market rally as output drops inIndonesia and biofuel mandates expand globally, said Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd.
Futures will trade from 2,600 ringgit ($806) to 2,900 ringgit a metric ton between now and March, Mistry said in comments prepared for a conference in Bandung, Indonesia. Prices may rally further to 3,000 ringgit if Brazil implements a higher biodiesel mandate, which would bolster soybean oil prices, he said. That level may not be sustained as export taxes will further increase costs, he said.
“I expect prices to do the job of moving demand away from palm oil at least until March,” said Mistry, who has traded vegetable oils for more than three decades. “Stocks may begin to replenish from May 2014 and prices may decline thereafter.”
Palm oil, used in everything from candy to detergents, entered a bull market this month and is heading for its first annual gain in three years as production drops at plantations in Indonesia and biodiesel demand increases. Indonesian output will decline by 500,000 tons to 27.5 million tons this year, before rebounding to 30.5 million tons in 2014, said Mistry. That would be the first drop since 1998, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Futures were little changed at 2,653 ringgit on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives at the midday break in Kuala Lumpur today. Prices surged to 2,692 ringgit on Nov. 22, the highest since September 2012, and are 8.8 percent higher this year.

Rains, Drought

Indonesian output will fall 1.9 percent to 26.5 million tons this year after heavy rains and drought, according to the median of five grower estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with 28.5 million tons estimated by the USDA. Deutsche Bank AG says futures traded in Malaysia, a global benchmark, will average 2,800 ringgit next year.
Plantations in Indonesia are taking longer than usual to recover from the high output cycle in the last four months of 2012, lowering crop this quarter, said Mistry. “The new high cycle in most parts of Indonesia will kick in from about May.”
Malaysian output may gain to 19.5 million tons to 19.7 million tons in 2014 from 19.2 million tons this year, said Mistry. The world’s second-largest grower produced 18.8 million tons last year, according to the nation’s palm oil board.
Vegetable oil supplies may remain tight until May, keeping prices higher, said Mistry. Additional supplies from the second half of 2013-2014 oil year will help ease prices, he said.

Abandoning Forecast

Mistry said on Nov. 14 in Guangzhou that futures could range between 2,400 ringgit and 2,600 ringgit with a surge to 2,800 ringgit in the first two months of next year, abandoning a Sept. 22 prediction for prices to drop to 2,000 ringgit in January on prospects for big soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina and if Brent crude oil fell below $100 a barrel.
Global biofuel demand may expand by at least 2.5 million tons on larger mandates in Indonesia and to a smaller extent in Malaysia, said Mistry. While Brazil and Argentina will also increase their mandates, rising palm and vegetable oil costs and declining crude prices have made discretionary blending unworkable, he said.
Indonesia raised the blending rate for biodiesel in subsidized fuel to 10 percent in September from 7.5 percent and the mandate will be expanded to non-subsidized fuel and for industrial users next year. About 6.34 million tons of palm oil will probably be processed into fuel this year, according to Hamburg-based industry researcher Oil World.

Indian Imports

Global cooking oil demand will probably increase by 6 million tons in the 12 months from October, while supplies are set to expand 7.1 million tons, said Mistry.
Cash prices for soybean oil from the old crop will trade from $920 to $1,000 a ton on a free-on-board basis in Argentina, he said. Prices could rise to $1,100 if Brazilian and Argentinian mandates are enhanced and if the U.S. blenders credit is renewed, he said.
Vegetable oil imports by India may climb 4.2 percent to 11.1 million tons in the oil year that began Nov. 1 from a year earlier, said Mistry. The biggest palm oil consumer may buy 8.3 million tons of the tropical oil, little changed from 2012-2013.
“I expect palm imports to stagnate because palm’s discount to soft oils is narrowing,” said Mistry. “Indian refiners also prefer to import unrefined soft oils where margins are much better.”

Palm oil heads for second monthly gain

Palm Heads for Second Monthly Gain on Indonesian Output Concern

Palm oil headed for a second monthly advance on speculation that production in Indonesia, the world’s largest supplier, may decline this year as weather curbs yields.
The contract for delivery in February was little changed at 2,653 ringgit ($822) a metric ton on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives at the midday break in Kuala Lumpur, after climbing to 2,656 ringgit yesterday, the highest price at close since September 2012. Futures rose 2.3 percent this month, poised for the first annual increase in three years.
Palm output in Indonesia will drop 1.9 percent to 26.5 million tons this year, according to the median of five grower estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the first decline since 1998, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which sees a 28.5 million ton crop.
“The uncertainties over Indonesia’s palm oil production are lending support to prices,” said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, a director at Commtrendz Risk Management Services in Mumbai. “There may be some temporary bullishness but when prices come close to the 2,700 ringgit psychological mark, it will be met with a lot of resistance.”
Refined palm oil for May delivery gained 0.3 percent to 6,334 yuan ($1,040) a ton on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Soybean oil climbed 0.3 percent to 7,272 yuan.

Thursday 28 November 2013

My other investments

hi,

forgot to mention that other than investing in stocks, I also invest in our own business:

pls explore and refer business to me. tks!

GX Entertainment (since 1995) – http://www.gx-fun.com/
Gena Chen Academy – http://www.genachenacademy.com/
Kindermusik With Love Studios Pte Ltd - http://www.kindermusikwithlovestudios.com.sg/

"The more money I have, The more people I can help!"

Cheers,
Jason.

Wednesday 20 November 2013

Free Stocks course/worksop on 30th Nov


i am doing the morning session. you can attend the morning or afternoon or both sessions. We are covering different approaches to the stock market. Come and find out more!!!



For those who have already emailed to me, u need not register again through the below link.

see you,
Jason

Seats are limited. Be the first 50 people to attend the 2 Short Courses (worth $188) for free!

  • Do you find it challenging to time the Stock market and do not know WHEN TO ENTER the Stock Market?
  • Have you experienced situations where you FAIL TO SELL a Stock, turning Profits into Losses?
  • Have you ever anticipated Stock prices to rise (from a low point) only to realize it continues to go lower?
YOU ARE NOT ALONE!
95% OF RETAIL INVESTORS LOSE MONEY IN STOCKS!
Come join us to learn the Secrets of Market Cycle Investing, proven to work during ALL market situations (bull, bear and side-way market), making CONSISTENT passive income and enormous capital gains in a RELAXED way.

Meet the 2 Master Trainers, Mr Jason Tan and Dr Tee (Ein55), where they will share their REAL LIFE INVESTING EXPERIENCE via 2 specially designed short courses in a 1-day workshop covering the foundation and applications of market-cycle investing strategies in stocks.

Novel methodologies of FA (Fundamental Analysis), TA (Technical Analysis) and PA (Personal Analysis) will be introduced and applied to study the complex regional and global stock market. The first 50 participants who register will get to attend these 2 short courses (worth $188) for free. Seats are limited, hurry book your seat now!
~ Who Should Attend ~
- Beginners looking for guidance to start investing in the Stock Market
- Experienced investors looking to sharpen your investing skills
- Working adults seeking additional streams of passive income
- Retirees / Semi Retirees interested to grow your nest egg in a relaxed way
~ Workshop Details ~
Date : 30 Nov 2013 (Sat)
Time : 9:30am – 5:30pm
Venue : Wealth Directions, 9 Penang Road, #13-15 Park Mall, S(238459)
(Dhoby Ghaut MRT Exit B)
Fee : $188 (free for the first 50 registration)

~ Agenda ~
0930 > Registration / Q&A

1000 > Secrets to Making Money in Stocks by Jason Tan
(Click to view Synopsis)


1200 > Lunch Break (Lunch Not Provided)

1300 > Registration / Q&A

1330 > Mega-Market-Cycle Stocks Investing Using 55 Styles by Dr Tee (Ein55) (Click to view Synopsis)

1730 > End of program

Monday 18 November 2013

Watch what the China Govt says in next few days or weeks.

The communist party had the economic reform policy meeting from 9 - 12th Nov 2013....They mentioned that they will allow "markets" to play a bigger role..

Hmm......what does that mean?? i am just sharing some thoughts:

Do you know that China is a centrally controlled country? They control how many children they can have...etc....for business..they control the selling prices from cotton, palm oil, sugar, flour...etc mainly daily staples...Other countries had to deal with increasing commodities prices due to inflation...but China control the selling prices ....protecting their economy from its impact....

BTW, they are lifting the one-child policy and a stroller company just rallied 7% in a day.

Now, seems like they are going to allow the market to price (the commodities) themselves.... if this is true...Wilmar and Noble would fly......especially Wilmar, who had been unable to pass the rising costs of production to their customers.....In the future, they might be able to rise price....btw their net profit margin is just a few %...so even if they just rise the selling price a little , will have a big impact on the profits!!!

wait and see.

If you had bought plantation stocks when i mentioned earlier(17th Oct), you should be sitting on quite some profits!!!

Come to my Free 2 hour workshop on stocks investing! A few page downwards, i shall make more announcements shortly....stay tuned.

cheers,
jason.

Palm OiL! Palm OiL!

looks like Palm oil ..hence plantation stocks are set to rise. Note that along the way up, there will be profit taking and small price corrections. Huat uh!!!

Palm Oil Exports From Indonesia Surge to Highest in Eight Months

Palm oil shipments from Indonesia, the world’s largest producer, climbed to the highest level in eight months in October as a decline in supplies of substitute oils in India and China spurred demand from the biggest buyers.
Exports increased 13 percent to 1.86 million metric tons from 1.64 million tons in September, the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, said in an e-mailed statement today. That’s the highest since 1.92 million tons shipped in February and compared with 1.42 million tons in October 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Shipments beat the median estimate of 1.7 million tons in a Bloomberg survey published Nov. 12.
Increased demand for palm oil, used in everything from candy to cosmetics, amid a drop in output due to heavy rains, may help extend a rally in prices. Futures in Kuala Lumpur entered a bull market this month and are heading for their first annual gain in three years on concern that production in Indonesia and Malaysia, the top growers, may trail estimates.
“Unpredictable weather conditions in some countries have benefited and improved demand for palm oil,” the growers and refiners group known as Gapki said in the statement. Heavy rains may disrupt harvesting and reduce production in Indonesia and Malaysia this month, supporting prices, it said.
Palm oil will probably gain to $975 a ton this month, said Gapki, without providing details of which price it referred to. Futures fell 1 percent to 2,586 ringgit ($809) a ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives in Kuala Lumpur by 12:30 p.m. local time.
India and China lifted purchases because of low domestic vegetable oils output and an increase in food and biofuel consumption, Gapki said.
Exports to India rose 13 percent to 488,260 tons in October from a month earlier, Gapki said. Shipments to China surged 62 percent to 296,490 tons, while sales to European Union countries jumped 52 percent to 395,380 tons, it said.
Shipments in the first 10 months of the year rose 20 percent to 17.2 million tons from year earlier, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Wednesday 13 November 2013

More and more news on Palm oil

Did you notice that there are more and more news on Palm oil recently? Looks like Palm oil price is trending up....and continuing....Hurray!!!

Palm by India Expanding as Crop Delay Cuts Reserves

Palm imports by India, the world’s largest consumer, probably climbed in October as a delay in the oilseed harvest reduced cooking oil stockpiles to the lowest level in nine months.
Shipments of the main crude and refined palm oils advanced 14 percent to 710,000 metric tons from 620,385 tons a month earlier, according to the median of estimates from five processors and brokers compiled by Bloomberg. Total vegetable oil imports, including those for industrial use, rose 10 percent to 950,000 tons, the survey showed. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India will release the data this week.
Increased purchases may extend a rally in prices of palm oil, used in everything from candy to cosmetics. Futures in Kuala Lumpur entered a bull market on Nov. 1 and are heading for their first annual gain in three years amid production declines in Indonesia, the world’s biggest supplier.
“The Indian crop was delayed, leading to lower supplies ahead of festivals,” said Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive officer of broker Sunvin Group, referring to Diwali and Eid celebrations when consumption of fried foods and sweets expands.
An extended monsoon delayed the harvest of soybeans and peanuts this year, said Mumbai-based Bajoria. The Soybean Processors Association of India cut its forecast for the biggest oilseed crop grown in the season to 12.2 million tons on Oct. 28 from 12.98 million tons.

Reserves Drop

Stockpiles of cooking oils at Indian ports dropped to 1.47 million tons on Oct. 1, the lowest since January, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association. Inventories may have reached 1.6 million tons at the start of November, said Bajoria. India meets more than half its demand through imports.
Palm for delivery in January advanced 0.2 percent to 2,605 ringgit ($811) a ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange today, the highest price at close since Nov. 1. Prices rose to 2,628 ringgit on Nov. 1, the highest close since September 2012 and 21 percent more than the 2,167 ringgit settlement on July 29, meeting the common definition of a bull market.
“Imports will start to drop from this month as the new crop comes in,” said Pradip Desai, managing director of Mumbai-based broker Palm Trade Services Pvt. “Soybean oil import demand will be lower.”
Vegetable oil purchases in the 11 months through September rose 5.5 percent to 9.66 million tons, data from the association showed. Imports will surge to 10.4 million tons to 10.5 million tons in the year ended Oct. 31 from 10.2 million tons a year earlier, said Bajoria.
Crude soybean oil imports probably fell to 100,000 tons in October from 140,971 tons a month earlier, while sunflower oil purchases may have jumped to 115,000 tons from 48,498 tons, the survey showed.

Free 2 hour stocks workshop

Hi,

I will be giving a Free stocks investing workshop.

Synopsis:

In this 2 hour workshop, our Master Trainer for “Secrets to Making money in Stocks” seminar, Mr Jason Tan shall share with you “Which stocks made him 50% gain in 3 weeks?”. He will also show you “How to use Technical indicators to trade world indices profitably? You will also learn “How to analyse property stocks?” Further, he will share the current market outlook based on the charts.

Date: 30th November 2013 (Sat)

Venue: Wealth Directions
Park Mall, 9 Penang Road, #13-15

Time: 10 am to 12 pm. Registration starts at 9.30 am.

Limited seats, email me at tangimhong2@gmail.com  for priority booking(please provide Name and contact number). Will provide a booking hotline shortly.
 
cheers,
Jason.

Tuesday 12 November 2013

Crude Palm oil rebounded 2600 RM

Indonesia Palm Reserves May Drop as Weather Curbs Output

Palm oil inventories in Indonesia, the world’s largest supplier, probably declined in October to the lowest level in 16 months as rain disrupted production and exports gained, boosting the outlook for prices.
Reserves shrank 8.5 percent to 2.04 million metric tons from 2.23 million tons in September, and compared with 2.6 million tons a year earlier, according to the median of estimates from five plantation executives, traders and refiners compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the lowest since 1.85 million tons in June 2012. Exports rose 3.7 percent to 1.7 million tons and output was unchanged at 2.4 million tons, the survey showed.

Futures in Kuala Lumpur entered a bull market this month and are heading for their first annual gain in three years on speculation that production in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia is trailing analysts’ estimates. Output of the oil, used in everything from candy to cosmetics, is typically highest from July to October. Stockpiles in Indonesia may drop through the fourth quarter on lower-than-expected production, according to Wilmar International Ltd. (WIL), the world’s top palm oil trader.

“Refineries are scrambling for palm oil,” said Sahat Sinaga, executive director at the Indonesian Vegetable Oil Industry Association. “Inventories may drop further in November to about 1.8 million tons and that may boost prices.”
The Indonesian Palm Oil Association, or Gapki, which doesn’t publish inventory and production data, may release October export figures next week. The forecast for changes in output and reserves were derived from earlier survey findings.

Bull Market

The stockpile prediction by Sinaga would be the lowest compared with the medians in the surveys that started in May 2012, and would be 49 percent less than a record 3.5 million tons in January.
Futures advanced 6.6 percent this year to 2,600 ringgit ($809) a ton on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives today. Prices reached 2,628 ringgit on Nov. 1, the highest close since September 2012 and 21 percent more than the 2,167 settlement on July 29, meeting the common definition of a bull market.
“The uptrend in prices has just started” and will last at least through January, said Hariyanto Wijaya, an analyst at PT Mandiri Sekuritas, a unit of PT Bank Mandiri, Indonesia’s biggest lender by assets. Prices usually reach their lowest in October when production peaks and then start to climb as supplies drop, he said in a report dated yesterday.

Forecast Cut

Several major plantations in Indonesia said that output unexpectedly fell 7 percent to 10 percent in the first 10 months because of excessive rain and the growing cycle, according to Derom Bangun, chairman of the palm oil board, on Oct. 30. The board may cut its production estimate when it gets November data, he said. The group lowered its forecast to 26.7 million tons to 27 million tons on Sept. 30 from 28 million tons. Output was 25.7 million tons in 2012.
A decline in production would contrast with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s prediction for a record 31 million tons in 2013-2014. Output may exceed 25 million tons this year, Agriculture Minister Suswono said Nov. 8.
Wilmar’s production of crude palm oil dropped 8 percent to 473,833 tons in the third quarter as output of fresh fruit bunches fell 10 percent, the Singapore-based company said last week. About 75 percent of its supplies come from Indonesia.

PT Astra Agro Lestari (AALI), the country’s largest listed plantation company by market value, had a 7.1 percent decline in production of fresh fruit bunches in the first nine months, it said Oct. 28. PT Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia (LSIP) reported a 17 percent drop and PT Sampoerna Agro had a 29 percent decrease.

Wednesday 6 November 2013

Plantations stocks consolidating

As i mentioned earlier, the Plantations stocks has run up too much too fast and was in OVERBOUGHT territory(look at the RSI)...they are consolidating now ....looking for a support....once it is found, the uptrend likely to resume...Same for Palm oil price...it is trying to form a HIGHER LOW...

Golden agri found support at 56 cents....There's a lot of buy-ups today....

cheers,
jason.

Friday 1 November 2013

Palm oil(2620 RM) enters Bull markets--up 20% from bottom at 2167 RM!

Palm Oil Supplies in Indonesia Seen Disrupted by Prolonged Rains

Palm oil production in Indonesia, the world’s largest supplier, may be less than expected this year after prolonged rains disrupted harvesting and transport, according to industry groups.
Rainfall hurt crops in the first half and early in the second half, said Susanto, head of marketing at the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, whose members are producers and refiners. Production may recover through February, he said in a phone interview today. The Indonesia Palm Oil Board, a separate body, may reduce its output estimate, said Chairman Derom Bangun.
Futures traded in Kuala Lumpur advanced to the highest in more than a year and entered bull-market territory on concern that production in Indonesia and Malaysia was less than analysts predicted and that the start of the monsoon may further curb supply. PT Astra Agro Lestari (AALI), PT Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia and PT Sampoerna Agro (SGRO) are among companies to report lower output this year.
“People expected production in the second half to reach 60 percent of the annual total, but that seems unreachable,” said Susanto from the association known as Gapki. “Crop patterns are shifting. The peak is normally October, but maybe this year we’ll see big production through the end of the year, and even into February.” Susanto manages plantations in Kalimantan on Borneo island.
Prices climbed as much as 1.2 percent to 2,624 ringgit a metric ton today and headed for the biggest weekly gain in almost three years on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives. The contract for January delivery was at 2,617 ringgit at 4:42 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur.

Supply Drop

The Palm Oil Board, which includes oleochemical and biodiesel companies, may cut its production estimate this year after November data are available, said Bangun. The group cut its estimate to 26.7 million tons to 27 million tons on Sept. 30 from 28 million tons. Output was 25.7 million tons in 2012.
Several major plantations reported that production unexpectedly declined 7 percent to 10 percent in the first 10 months, said Bangun. Some regions had too much rain during the dry season disrupting pollination and some trees suffered from a five-year low in their production cycle, he said.
Astra Agro, the country’s largest listed plantation company by market value, had a 7.1 percent decline in fresh fruit bunch output in the first nine months to 3.67 million tons, the company said Oct. 28. London Sumatra (LSIP) reported a 17 percent drop in production to 1.2 million tons, and output fell 29 percent to 804,341 tons at Sampoerna Agro.
While production declined for some companies, exports increased. Shipments climbed 19 percent to 15.3 million tons in the first nine months, according to Gapki data compiled by Bloomberg. Consumption also rose because of policies that required greater use of biodiesel, according to Bangun.
That may cut inventories to 2.2 million tons by the end of 2013 from 2.5 million tons a year earlier, said Bangun.
To contact the reporters on this story: Yoga Rusmana in Jakarta at yrusmana@bloomberg.net; Eko Listiyorini in Jakarta at elistiyorini@bloomberg.net