Wednesday 30 October 2013
Dow jones
wow! Dow jones is marching towards 15,800 which i mentioned earlier.....once it hits this level, if it cannot break it and stays above it....it is likely to pull back.....Now is not a good time to buy Dow Jones...risk vs reward ratio not good enough....
review Ho Bee and UOL.
Ho bee hit 2.07
UOL hit 6.60....broke resistance at 6.485...might re-attempt 7.00!!! wait and see....cannot break, take profits...
Ho Bee investments.
NAV $2.7, price was $2.00 yesterday. Price to NAV: 0.74...not bad.
Daily share buy back took place at $2.00
Technically, it has rebounded from the 200 days MA.
check out what I see on UOL Group Limited at http://myfcoach.com/.
UOL hit 6.60....broke resistance at 6.485...might re-attempt 7.00!!! wait and see....cannot break, take profits...
Ho Bee investments.
NAV $2.7, price was $2.00 yesterday. Price to NAV: 0.74...not bad.
Daily share buy back took place at $2.00
Technically, it has rebounded from the 200 days MA.
Palm oil at 8 month high!!!
No surprise the agri (plantations) stocks are rallying.....the speed is abit too fast(stocks are overbought...)....so might have a consolidation soon.
Hee Hee...i spotted the commodities rally back on 17th Oct 2013.
Golden agri 0.595 (trying to bridge the gap at 0.60-0.625!) ....if can stay above 0.625 then might go back to 0.66..Huat la!!!
Indoagri. 0.895 (hit intra day high of 0.915).....going to face 0.945 resistance...might pull-back.
Wilmar 3.50
Olam 1.565(consolidating before another leg up)
Hee Hee...i spotted the commodities rally back on 17th Oct 2013.
Golden agri 0.595 (trying to bridge the gap at 0.60-0.625!) ....if can stay above 0.625 then might go back to 0.66..Huat la!!!
Indoagri. 0.895 (hit intra day high of 0.915).....going to face 0.945 resistance...might pull-back.
Wilmar 3.50
Olam 1.565(consolidating before another leg up)
Palm Oil Extends Rally to Eight-Month
High on Supply Concerns
By Ranjeetha Pakiam -
Oct 30, 2013 2:46 PM GMT+0800
Q
Palm rallied to the highest level in eight months on speculation
that output in Malaysia, the world’s second-largest
producer, will drop starting next month because of growing cycles and the onset
of monsoon.
The contract for delivery in January advanced as much as 2.3
percent to 2,555 ringgit ($810) a metric ton on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives,
matching the intraday high for futures on Feb. 22, before trading at 2,551
ringgit by the midday break. Palm for physical delivery in November was at
2,540 ringgit, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
While palm oil is produced year-round, output peaks from July to October, before
tapering off. Prices are heading for a 10 percent gain this month, the most
since December 2010, on expectation that the monsoon season that usually begins
in November would slow production. The 14-day relative strength index for
futures was at 73.5, the highest since Aug. 28. Some traders see readings above
70 as a sign that a drop is imminent.
“The market does look a little bit overbought,” saidCarey Wong, an analyst at OCBC Investment Research Pte in Singapore. “It
could stay overbought for a while, before we have another spate of news which
could justify taking profits.”
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are predicted over Sabah,
Sarawak and Johor, the biggest palm oil producing states, according to a
seven-day outlook on the Malaysian Meteorological Department’s website.
Refined palm oil for May delivery jumped 3.7 percent to 6,332 yuan ($1,039) a ton on the Dalian Commodity Exchange and soybean oil
climbed 2.3 percent to 7,220 yuan.
Soybeans for
delivery in January climbed 0.6 percent to $12.78 a bushel on the Chicago Board
of Trade, while soybean oil for December gained 1.5 percent to 41.59 cents a
pound.
Wednesday 23 October 2013
Wheat Near 4-month high
btw spot wheat price has crossed 200 days MA.
Wheat Nears Fourth-Month High as South American Demand May Climb
By Whitney McFerron & Phoebe Sedgman - Oct 23, 2013 8:12 PM GMT+0800
Wheat traded near the highest price in four months in Chicago on speculation that South America may seek more U.S. supplies after dry weather.
The worst drought in 50 years in areas of Argentina, South America’s biggest wheat exporter, resulted in “irreversible damage” to the crop and eroded conditions for recently planted corn, researcher Oil World said yesterday. About 20.58 million bushels of U.S. wheat were inspected for export in the week ended Oct. 17, up 25 percent from a year earlier, the Department of Agriculture said. Brazil, the third-biggest wheat importer and a traditional buyer from Argentina, stepped up U.S. purchases this year, USDA data show.
“I struggle to be bearish wheat at these levels,” Chris Gadd, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. in London, said by telephone today. “South American wheat in general looks pretty poor, not only in Argentina, but in parts of Brazil and Paraguay the situation is pretty bad. The U.S. is going to get an awful lot of demand, and the balance sheet is going to be tight.”
Wheat for delivery in December climbed 1 percent to $7.08 a bushel at 6:56 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade. Prices touched $7.1125 on Oct. 21, the highest since June 21. The grain is still down 9 percent this year as the USDA estimates global output may rise to a record 708.9 million metric tons.
Reduced Stockpiles
Wheat inventories in the U.S., the world’s top exporter, may drop to a six-year low of 15.3 million tons by the end of the 2013-14 season, the USDA said in September. The agency, which didn’t release monthly supply and demand estimates in October because of the U.S. government shutdown that ended last week, is scheduled to update its forecasts on Nov. 8.
Milling wheat for delivery in January rose 0.9 percent to 204.50 euros ($281.25) a ton on NYSE Liffe in Paris after touching 205.75 euros, the highest since June 5 for a most-active contract.
Wheat also was supported as excess rain in Russia and Ukraine kept farmers from planting some winter crops, said Simon Clancy, director brokering services at Ikon Commodities Pty Ltd. in Sydney. Russia may lose 4 million tons of wheat from its potential harvest after rains restricted sowing, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies said last week.
Soybeans for delivery in January rose 0.5 percent to $13.0425 a bushel in Chicago. Corn for delivery in December gained 0.6 percent to $4.4075 a bushel after falling the most in two weeks yesterday.
Palm oil jumped to 7-month high
U might want to look at Golden agri resources.
Palm Oil Jumps to Seven-Month High as Inventory Concerns Ease
By Swansy Afonso - Oct 23, 2013 6:35 PM GMT+0800
Palm oil gained for a fourth day to the highest level in seven months on speculation that output inMalaysia may increase at a slower pace, capping inventories in the world’s second-largest producer.
The contract for delivery in January advanced 1.1 percent to 2,482 ringgit ($784) a metric ton on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, the highest price at close for most-active futures since Mar. 22. Palm for physical delivery in November was at 2,440 ringgit today, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“The growth in output has not been much and this will keep inventory levels in check,” said Isha Trivedi, an analyst at PhillipCapital India Pvt. in Mumbai. “The ringgit pared its early gains supporting prices.”
Reserves dropped 32 percent to 1.78 million tons last month from a record 2.63 million tons in December, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board shows. Output in September gained 10 percent to 1.91 million tons. A new ruling that limits expansion by plantation companies will probably hamper Indonesian government’s target to produce 40 million tons by 2020, Joefly J. Bahroeny, chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, said today.
Soybeans for delivery in January gained 0.5 percent to $13.04 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, the highest level in two weeks, while soybean oil for December increased 0.3 percent to 41.66 cents a pound.
Refined palm oil for May delivery climbed 1.2 percent to end at 6,178 yuan ($1,015) a ton on theDalian Commodity Exchange and soybean oil advanced 0.6 percent to close at 7,216 yuan.
Tuesday 22 October 2013
STI Broke 3200 resistance!!!
Our STI index finally close above 3200 after numerous failed attempts. likely the rally shall continue and the STI would head for the 200 days MA at around 3238..and then perhaps attempt a new high for this year.
Indoagri closed at 0.88 today! 10% higher then last week!
Wilmar 3.44!!!
Olam 1.565...up 10 cts in 2 days....!
Indoagri closed at 0.88 today! 10% higher then last week!
Wilmar 3.44!!!
Olam 1.565...up 10 cts in 2 days....!
Monday 21 October 2013
Commodities stocks rallied today!!!
Wow! what a great end to today! All the commodities stocks counters i mentioned went up.
Wilmar 3.34
Indoagri 0.84
Golden agri 0.54
Olam 1.505
Noble 1.03
Wilmar 3.34
Indoagri 0.84
Golden agri 0.54
Olam 1.505
Noble 1.03
Friday 18 October 2013
wheat
Wheat?? Yes, wheat for making flour, bread , noodles.
Will wheat go back to USD 9 a bushel?
It is attempting to break the 200 days MA!
Will wheat go back to USD 9 a bushel?
It is attempting to break the 200 days MA!
sugar futures jumped 5% today!!!
here's why:
ok...better hang on to my sugar holdings.
ok...better hang on to my sugar holdings.
Sugar Surges to Highest in a Year as Fire Hits Brazil Warehouses
By Isis Almeida - Oct 18, 2013 11:03 PM GMT+0800
Sugar jumped to the highest in almost a year in New York after warehouses that store the sweetener in the Brazilian port of Santos were struck by fire.
A blaze started at the facilities in the country’s biggest port at about 6:15 a.m. local time today, according to Codesp, the port managing company. Fire affected depots 20, 21 and 6, all owned by Copersucar SA, a spokesman for Codesp said by phone from Santos today. One of the depots has storage capacity of more than 100,000 metric tons, said the spokesman, who asked not to be identified citing company policy.
“We are going into the tail end of the Brazilian crush and production there has already been affected by rains,” Kona Haque, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. in London, said by phone today. “This is another problem they didn’t need and we could lose up to 300,000 tons. Speculators had already started to buy and the bullish news will fuel that short-term bullishness further,” she said, referring to the fire.
Raw sugar for delivery in March rose 1.4 percent to 19.27 cents a pound in New York by 10:47 a.m. It gained as much as 6.1 percent earlier today, the most for a most-active contract since September 2011, to touch 20.16 cents, the highest price since Oct. 22. Refined, or white, sugar for delivery in December rallied as much as 4.6 percent in London.
Ten ships were scheduled to load sugar at Copersucar’s terminal at Santos from yesterday through Nov. 3, Isis Markarian, a market assistant at Santos-based SA Commodities and Unimar Agenciamentos Maritimos, said by phone today. The ships were due to load 38,000 tons of white sugar and at least 340,000 tons of raw sweetener, Nicolle de Castro, a business analyst, said.
Rains earlier this year in Brazil’s center south, the main growing region in the world’s biggest producer, already reduced output, according to Sao Paulo-based industry group Unica. Production there will total 34.2 million tons in the 2013-14 season, down from a previous forecast of 35.5 million tons.
The global sugar surpluses for this year and the next are narrowing as rising population means accelerating demand in developing nations from China to Indonesia.
Sugar production will outstrip demand by 2 million tons in the 2013-14 season, London-based Czarnikow Group Ltd., which has clients in 83 countries, estimated Sept. 5. That’s down from a previous forecast of 3.9 million tons.
Copersucar was the seller of 83 percent of raw sugar delivered on ICE to settle the October futures contract, according to two people earlier this month with direct knowledge of the transaction.
The Brazilian trading company and producers’ cooperative delivered sugar for 24,279 contracts, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the sale was private. That’s equal to about 1.2 million tons.
The total delivery was a record 29,344 contracts, exchange data showed. Each contract represents 112,000 pounds.
Copersucar wasn’t able to say how much sugar was in the warehouses.
A blaze started at the facilities in the country’s biggest port at about 6:15 a.m. local time today, according to Codesp, the port managing company. Fire affected depots 20, 21 and 6, all owned by Copersucar SA, a spokesman for Codesp said by phone from Santos today. One of the depots has storage capacity of more than 100,000 metric tons, said the spokesman, who asked not to be identified citing company policy.
“We are going into the tail end of the Brazilian crush and production there has already been affected by rains,” Kona Haque, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. in London, said by phone today. “This is another problem they didn’t need and we could lose up to 300,000 tons. Speculators had already started to buy and the bullish news will fuel that short-term bullishness further,” she said, referring to the fire.
Raw sugar for delivery in March rose 1.4 percent to 19.27 cents a pound in New York by 10:47 a.m. It gained as much as 6.1 percent earlier today, the most for a most-active contract since September 2011, to touch 20.16 cents, the highest price since Oct. 22. Refined, or white, sugar for delivery in December rallied as much as 4.6 percent in London.
Ten ships were scheduled to load sugar at Copersucar’s terminal at Santos from yesterday through Nov. 3, Isis Markarian, a market assistant at Santos-based SA Commodities and Unimar Agenciamentos Maritimos, said by phone today. The ships were due to load 38,000 tons of white sugar and at least 340,000 tons of raw sweetener, Nicolle de Castro, a business analyst, said.
Brazilian Output
The fire destroyed 3 warehouses and was still burning at a fourth, Moises Agostinho, a firefighter at Sao Paulo state fire department, said in a telephone interview. Each depot had an area of 9,000 square meters (96,875 square feet), and two people sustained minor injuries.Rains earlier this year in Brazil’s center south, the main growing region in the world’s biggest producer, already reduced output, according to Sao Paulo-based industry group Unica. Production there will total 34.2 million tons in the 2013-14 season, down from a previous forecast of 35.5 million tons.
The global sugar surpluses for this year and the next are narrowing as rising population means accelerating demand in developing nations from China to Indonesia.
Sugar production will outstrip demand by 2 million tons in the 2013-14 season, London-based Czarnikow Group Ltd., which has clients in 83 countries, estimated Sept. 5. That’s down from a previous forecast of 3.9 million tons.
Potential Disruption
“We could potentially live with 300,000 tons less because of the global surplus, but the main issue is how long these warehouses and surrounding parts of the loading terminals will be out of action and how it will disrupt port operations,” Haque said.Copersucar was the seller of 83 percent of raw sugar delivered on ICE to settle the October futures contract, according to two people earlier this month with direct knowledge of the transaction.
The Brazilian trading company and producers’ cooperative delivered sugar for 24,279 contracts, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the sale was private. That’s equal to about 1.2 million tons.
The total delivery was a record 29,344 contracts, exchange data showed. Each contract represents 112,000 pounds.
Copersucar wasn’t able to say how much sugar was in the warehouses.
Thursday 17 October 2013
Crude Palm Oil, CPO and Plantations stocks.
hi,
CPO prices are rebounding from 3 years-low.....Soft commodities like cotton, corn, wheat, palm oil, soybean, sugar etc has dropped for 3 years...!!! Yes..they are at 3 years-low.....is it time to buy stocks dealing with soft commodities??
i am starting to collect Golden agri, indoagri, wilmar, noble, olam...don't know when will they rally, but now looks like at a pretty decent value.
E.g Indoagri, NAV is $1.22, cash per share $0.35...now only $0.80...Bonus is Daily share buy back occurred for Aug and Sept....1,000,000 shares per day....from $0.76-$0.795....$800,000 for 2 months......Unlike Golden agri, Indoagri has quite low daily volume, hence once it moves(when the volume comes), it moves a couple of cents....In addition, they have recently acquired some sugar mills and related companies....btw u might want to look at the Sugar charts...sugar is rebounding too.
Wilmar also derives a significant revenue from Sugar.....sugar futures just went up 5% on China GDP rebound.
All three of them just went above the Moving averages. Particularly, Wilmar is testing the 200 days MA!!!
CPO prices are rebounding from 3 years-low.....Soft commodities like cotton, corn, wheat, palm oil, soybean, sugar etc has dropped for 3 years...!!! Yes..they are at 3 years-low.....is it time to buy stocks dealing with soft commodities??
i am starting to collect Golden agri, indoagri, wilmar, noble, olam...don't know when will they rally, but now looks like at a pretty decent value.
E.g Indoagri, NAV is $1.22, cash per share $0.35...now only $0.80...Bonus is Daily share buy back occurred for Aug and Sept....1,000,000 shares per day....from $0.76-$0.795....$800,000 for 2 months......Unlike Golden agri, Indoagri has quite low daily volume, hence once it moves(when the volume comes), it moves a couple of cents....In addition, they have recently acquired some sugar mills and related companies....btw u might want to look at the Sugar charts...sugar is rebounding too.
Wilmar also derives a significant revenue from Sugar.....sugar futures just went up 5% on China GDP rebound.
All three of them just went above the Moving averages. Particularly, Wilmar is testing the 200 days MA!!!
OCBC bank
When is the time/price to buy OCBC??
Plot the moving averages from 20-200 days...can you see that it is well supported by the 200 days MA(the lowest pink line)....after it touch and rebound...buy....simple hor??
HL Asia "double bottomed"??
nice chart formation and price just crossed the 20 dMA.
MACD bullish crossover.
CapitaLand looks good too.
MACD bullish crossover.
Hope it stays above the MA.
MACD bullish crossover.
MACD bullish crossover.
Hope it stays above the MA.
Wednesday 16 October 2013
some bullish counters
Ho Bee investments.
NAV $2.7, price was $2.00 yesterday. Price to NAV: 0.74...not bad.
Daily share buy back took place at $2.00
Technically, it has rebounded from the 200 days MA.
check out what I see on UOL Group Limited at http://myfcoach.com/.
NAV $2.7, price was $2.00 yesterday. Price to NAV: 0.74...not bad.
Daily share buy back took place at $2.00
Technically, it has rebounded from the 200 days MA.
Monday 14 October 2013
Friday 11 October 2013
Trading the Dow jones industrial index
Can you see that the Dow jones industrial index touched the 200 days moving average(red line) and rebounded...a 300+ point rally. now it is testing the 50 days MA(blue line)...if it breaks, maybe we will get a new high 15,800....fingers crossed..
At the bottom is the MACD indicator...can you see that the rallies and decline happened after a crossing took place?...when the two lines cross, we can expect a change in short term trend either up to down or down to up.
The top portion of the picture is the RSI (relative strength index), when it goes near or above 70 % it means the stock is over bought and a pull back (decline in price)is expected. When it goes near 30%, it means the stock is over sold and a rebound is imminent...it works quite nicely and really simply to apply.
The US govt won't be so dumb to let US default....right?
At the bottom is the MACD indicator...can you see that the rallies and decline happened after a crossing took place?...when the two lines cross, we can expect a change in short term trend either up to down or down to up.
The top portion of the picture is the RSI (relative strength index), when it goes near or above 70 % it means the stock is over bought and a pull back (decline in price)is expected. When it goes near 30%, it means the stock is over sold and a rebound is imminent...it works quite nicely and really simply to apply.
The US govt won't be so dumb to let US default....right?
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